Car or Gold? Real Returns and Vehicle Running Costs

Define comparable data first

Use the same start and end dates, currency, transaction prices and cost method. A new-car list price is not the achievable resale price of your used car. Advertised and completed-sale prices are different data too.

TurkStat’s methodology uses gross deposit interest, bullion gold and defined currency averages. Do not directly equate a series produced on that basis with your personal net bank return or the price of one car. Rankings of car, gold and crypto returns without a source, period and method are not used here.

Real return: a purely hypothetical example

The basic formula consistent with TurkStat’s methodology is real return = (1 + nominal return) / (1 + inflation) − 1, using decimal rates.

For illustration only, assume TRY 1,000,000 initially, TRY 1,200,000 at year end and 30% inflation. The 20% nominal rise gives a real return of approximately −7.69%. The end value has purchasing power of about TRY 923,077 in start-period money. These are not 2025 market observations or a forecast.

Preserving purchasing power would require TRY 1,300,000 at year end. The TRY 100,000 gap against TRY 1,200,000 is measured in different-period money from the TRY 76,923 real loss calculated at starting prices. Do not confuse the two.

Include costs and the value of transport

Include insurance, taxes, maintenance, energy, financing and sale expenses in cash flows. If a hypothetical TRY 50,000 cost is all paid at year end, net end value is TRY 1,150,000 and real change at the same 30% inflation is about −11.54%. Actual payments at different dates require their timing to be considered.

A car also supplies transport. Comparing it with a financial asset without including the alternative transport or rental cost for meeting that need creates a one-sided result. Avoid counting the same vehicle value or benefit twice.

Business tax and contractual effects

Do not assume unlimited full deduction of rent or automatic recovery of purchase VAT. The Administration’s passenger-car rent, running-cost and depreciation restrictions and taxpayer conditions apply separately.

Compare rental and purchase for the same duration and mileage using written offers. Included services, price adjustments and exit conditions matter. This method does not recommend a particular investment or guarantee future gains.